Wednesday, November 08, 2017

Election oddments from watching Virginia


There were hints from the outset that this could be a Democratic night. From Claire Malone:

Just taking a quick look at the exit polls that are coming out of Virginia and some interesting things here. Northam is outperforming Clinton among a couple of different demographics. He’s winning women by 59 percent; Clinton won them by 56 percent. He’s winning 40 percent of white voters, compared with Clinton’s 35 percent. But he’s not outpacing her among black voters: He has 86 percent compared with her 88 percent. His margins with voters 18- to 29-year-olds are pretty large, though: Northam’s winning 66 percent, compared with Clinton’s 54 percent.

Via several tweets from New York Times/Upshot's Nate Cohn:

I see some commentary on why Gillespie lost that seems disconnected from what just happened. He did really well in white rural Virginia! He's going to outperform Romney, [Cuccinelli -- GOP Governor nominee in 2013] in all sorts of areas. He was *annihilated* in the suburbs.

Turnout in precincts where Hispanic *or* Asian voters represent at least 20% of the population is 15 percent higher than our pre-election estimates.

Turnout surge included black voters, as well. In majority black precincts, turnout is running 7% of [over?] our pre-election estimates, v. 8% elsewhere.

If anyone thought '16 was the floor for GOP in well-educated areas, they're going to have to rethink.

Tellingly, from David Wasserman at FiveThirtyEight:

One final note: It’s hard not to conclude the August events in Charlottesville had a galvanizing effect on Democrats in that area. Across the state, raw votes cast were up 16 percent over 2013. But in the city of Charlottesville, raw votes cast were up 31 percent. Northam took 84 percent of the vote there.

There's a new and different Democratic party struggling into being.
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A scary thought: an election night like this (coupled with the church gun massacre in Texas) takes the national focus off Donald Trump. What awful thing will the man do to try to recapture our undivided attention?
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This was the first time since 2008 that I've been able to feel unalloyed delight in an election outcome. (In 2012 many good results happened, but the campaign I was working on lost.) The emerging majority needs more like this; we get them by working for them.

1 comment:

The Rev. John Kirkley said...

I share your delight in the results. The key is to move these voters from resistance to membership - not just reacting to the horror du jour, but committed for the long haul. How do we translate resistance into membership? It is a question Faith in Action is pondering in California.